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export type CalibrationOptions = {
expectedUsers: number;
targetCpuPercent: number;
maxCpuPercent: number;
maxUserWaitSec: number;
maxDurationMin: number;
classroomDurationSec: 60;
};
export type ActiveMeasurement = {
requested: number;
stable: boolean;
cpuP95Percent: number | null;
cpuMaxPercent: number | null;
minAvailableMemoryBytes: number | null;
lifecycleDockerPeak: number;
pollingDockerPeak: number;
errors: string[];
elapsedMs: number;
};
export type StartupMeasurement = {
requested: number;
stable: boolean;
startupSlotWaitP95Ms: number | null;
startupSlotWaitMaxMs: number | null;
startupDurationP95Ms: number | null;
cpuP95Percent: number | null;
iowaitP95Percent: number | null;
minAvailableMemoryBytes: number | null;
failures: number;
timeouts: number;
/** True only when backend semaphore samples cover every startup attempt. */
startupSlotWaitSamplesComplete?: boolean;
startupSlotWaitSampleCount?: number;
};
export const CLASSROOM_QUEUE_SAFETY_MARGIN_MS = 30_000;
export const CLASSROOM_MEASUREMENT_QUEUE_TIMEOUT_MAX_MS = 900_000;
export type Recommendation<T> = {
value: T | null;
status: "recommended" | "not-calibrated" | "infeasible" | "out-of-range";
confidence: "HIGH" | "MEDIUM" | "LOW";
measuredBasis: string[];
warnings: string[];
};
const DEFAULTS: CalibrationOptions = {
expectedUsers: 200,
targetCpuPercent: 75,
maxCpuPercent: 85,
maxUserWaitSec: 240,
maxDurationMin: 30,
classroomDurationSec: 60,
};
function finiteNumber(value: unknown): value is number {
return typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value);
}
function positiveInteger(value: unknown, name: string): number {
if (!finiteNumber(value) || !Number.isInteger(value) || value <= 0) {
throw new Error(`${name} must be a positive integer`);
}
return value;
}
function positiveNumber(value: unknown, name: string): number {
if (!finiteNumber(value) || value <= 0) throw new Error(`${name} must be positive`);
return value;
}
export function validateCalibrationOptions(input: Partial<CalibrationOptions>): CalibrationOptions {
const options: CalibrationOptions = {
...DEFAULTS,
...input,
classroomDurationSec: 60,
};
positiveInteger(options.expectedUsers, "expectedUsers");
positiveNumber(options.targetCpuPercent, "targetCpuPercent");
positiveNumber(options.maxCpuPercent, "maxCpuPercent");
positiveNumber(options.maxUserWaitSec, "maxUserWaitSec");
positiveNumber(options.maxDurationMin, "maxDurationMin");
if (options.targetCpuPercent >= options.maxCpuPercent) {
throw new Error("targetCpuPercent must be less than maxCpuPercent");
}
if (options.maxCpuPercent > 95) throw new Error("maxCpuPercent must be at most 95");
return options;
}
export function planActiveCandidates(options: CalibrationOptions, logicalCpus: number): number[] {
positiveInteger(logicalCpus, "logicalCpus");
const cap = Math.min(options.expectedUsers, 128, Math.max(20, logicalCpus * 4));
if (cap <= 20) return [cap];
const increment = Math.max(20, logicalCpus);
const candidates: number[] = [];
for (let value = 20; value < cap; value += increment) candidates.push(value);
candidates.push(cap);
return [...new Set(candidates)];
}
export function planDownwardRefinement(firstExceeded: number, _options: CalibrationOptions, logicalCpus: number): number[] {
positiveInteger(firstExceeded, "firstExceeded");
positiveInteger(logicalCpus, "logicalCpus");
const step = Math.max(5, Math.ceil(logicalCpus / 2));
const lowerBound = Math.max(1, Math.ceil(logicalCpus / 2));
const candidates: number[] = [];
for (let value = firstExceeded - step; value >= lowerBound; value -= step) candidates.push(value);
return candidates;
}
export function planBracketRefinement(
measurements: ActiveMeasurement[],
options: CalibrationOptions,
logicalCpus: number,
): number[] {
positiveInteger(logicalCpus, "logicalCpus");
const step = Math.max(5, Math.ceil(logicalCpus / 2));
const ordered = [...measurements].sort((left, right) => left.requested - right.requested);
for (let index = 0; index < ordered.length - 1; index++) {
const lower = ordered[index];
const upper = ordered[index + 1];
Iif (!lower || !upper || !lower.stable || !upper.stable || lower.cpuP95Percent === null || upper.cpuP95Percent === null) continue;
if (lower.cpuP95Percent <= options.targetCpuPercent && upper.cpuP95Percent > options.targetCpuPercent) {
const candidates: number[] = [];
for (let value = lower.requested + step; value < upper.requested; value += step) {
Eif (!ordered.some((measurement) => measurement.requested === value)) candidates.push(value);
}
return candidates;
}
}
return [];
}
export function measurementQueueTimeoutMs(
productionDefaultMs: number,
maxUserWaitSec: number,
classroomDurationSec: number,
startupSafetyMarginMs = CLASSROOM_QUEUE_SAFETY_MARGIN_MS,
): number {
positiveInteger(productionDefaultMs, "productionDefaultMs");
positiveNumber(maxUserWaitSec, "maxUserWaitSec");
positiveInteger(classroomDurationSec, "classroomDurationSec");
positiveInteger(startupSafetyMarginMs, "startupSafetyMarginMs");
const result = Math.max(
productionDefaultMs,
Math.ceil(maxUserWaitSec * 1_000) + classroomDurationSec * 1_000 + startupSafetyMarginMs,
);
if (result > CLASSROOM_MEASUREMENT_QUEUE_TIMEOUT_MAX_MS) {
throw new Error(`measurement queue timeout ${result}ms exceeds the configured maximum ${CLASSROOM_MEASUREMENT_QUEUE_TIMEOUT_MAX_MS}ms`);
}
return result;
}
function activeIsStable(measurement: ActiveMeasurement, options: CalibrationOptions): boolean {
return measurement.stable
&& measurement.errors.length === 0
&& measurement.cpuP95Percent !== null
&& measurement.cpuP95Percent <= options.maxCpuPercent
&& measurement.lifecycleDockerPeak === measurement.requested
&& measurement.pollingDockerPeak >= measurement.requested;
}
export function selectActiveRecommendation(
measurements: ActiveMeasurement[],
options: CalibrationOptions,
): Recommendation<number> {
const stable = measurements.filter((measurement) => activeIsStable(measurement, options));
const target = stable.filter((measurement) => (measurement.cpuP95Percent ?? Infinity) <= options.targetCpuPercent);
if (target.length > 0) {
const selected = target.reduce((best, current) => current.requested > best.requested ? current : best, target[0]);
return {
value: selected.requested,
status: "recommended",
confidence: target.length >= 2 ? "HIGH" : "MEDIUM",
measuredBasis: [`${selected.requested} active simulations directly measured`, `CPU p95 ${selected.cpuP95Percent}%`],
warnings: [],
};
}
if (stable.length > 0) {
const selected = stable.reduce((best, current) => current.requested > best.requested ? current : best, stable[0]);
return {
value: selected.requested,
status: "recommended",
confidence: "MEDIUM",
measuredBasis: [`${selected.requested} active simulations directly measured`, `CPU p95 ${selected.cpuP95Percent}%`],
warnings: ["No directly measured stable candidate met the target CPU; selected the highest stable candidate below the hard ceiling."],
};
}
return {
value: null,
status: "not-calibrated",
confidence: "LOW",
measuredBasis: [],
warnings: ["No stable directly measured active-simulation candidate was available."],
};
}
function materialStartupRegression(candidate: StartupMeasurement, baseline: StartupMeasurement): boolean {
Iif (candidate.failures > 0 || candidate.timeouts > 0) return true;
Eif (candidate.cpuP95Percent !== null && baseline.cpuP95Percent !== null) {
if (candidate.cpuP95Percent - baseline.cpuP95Percent > 5) return true;
Iif (baseline.cpuP95Percent > 0 && candidate.cpuP95Percent / baseline.cpuP95Percent > 1.1) return true;
}
Iif (candidate.iowaitP95Percent !== null && baseline.iowaitP95Percent !== null
&& candidate.iowaitP95Percent - baseline.iowaitP95Percent > 5) return true;
Iif (candidate.minAvailableMemoryBytes !== null && baseline.minAvailableMemoryBytes !== null
&& candidate.minAvailableMemoryBytes < baseline.minAvailableMemoryBytes * 0.9) return true;
return false;
}
export function selectStartupRecommendation(
measurements: StartupMeasurement[],
productionDefault: number,
maxActive: number,
): Recommendation<number> {
const safe = measurements
.filter((measurement) => measurement.requested <= maxActive)
.filter((measurement) => measurement.stable && measurement.failures === 0 && measurement.timeouts === 0)
.filter((measurement) => measurement.startupSlotWaitSamplesComplete === true)
.filter((measurement) => measurement.startupDurationP95Ms !== null)
.sort((left, right) => left.requested - right.requested);
if (safe.length === 0) {
return { value: null, status: "not-calibrated", confidence: "LOW", measuredBasis: [], warnings: ["No safe startup candidate was directly measured."] };
}
const baseline = safe[0];
const best = Math.min(...safe.map((measurement) => measurement.startupDurationP95Ms ?? Infinity));
const nearBest = safe.filter((measurement) => (measurement.startupDurationP95Ms ?? Infinity) <= best * 1.1);
const eligible = nearBest.filter((measurement) => !materialStartupRegression(measurement, baseline));
const selected = eligible[0] ?? baseline;
const warnings = eligible.length === 0
? ["Every near-best startup candidate had a material resource or error regression; kept the smallest safe baseline."]
: [];
Iif (selected.requested < productionDefault) {
warnings.push(`Measured startup candidate ${selected.requested} is below the current default ${productionDefault}; review before applying.`);
}
return {
value: selected.requested,
status: "recommended",
confidence: safe.length >= 3 ? "HIGH" : "MEDIUM",
measuredBasis: [`startup candidate ${selected.requested} directly measured`, `best startup p95 ${best}ms`, `baseline candidate ${baseline.requested}`],
warnings,
};
}
function roundUp(value: number, quantum: number): number {
return Math.ceil(value / quantum) * quantum;
}
function rangeRecommendation(
technical: number,
productionDefault: number,
range: { min: number; max: number },
basis: string[],
): Recommendation<number> {
if (technical > range.max) {
return {
value: null,
status: "out-of-range",
confidence: "HIGH",
measuredBasis: [...basis, `technical recommendation ${technical}`],
warnings: [`Technical recommendation ${technical}ms exceeds configured maximum ${range.max}ms; no value was emitted.`],
};
}
return {
value: Math.max(productionDefault, range.min, technical),
status: "recommended",
confidence: "HIGH",
measuredBasis: [...basis, `technical recommendation ${technical}`],
warnings: technical < productionDefault ? ["Measured latency supports the existing production default; it was not reduced."] : [],
};
}
export function recommendDockerControlTimeout(
p99Ms: number | null,
productionDefault: number,
range: { min: number; max: number },
): Recommendation<number> {
if (p99Ms === null || !finiteNumber(p99Ms) || p99Ms < 0) {
return { value: null, status: "not-calibrated", confidence: "LOW", measuredBasis: [], warnings: ["Docker control p99 was not measured."] };
}
return rangeRecommendation(roundUp(p99Ms * 1.5, 100), productionDefault, range, [`Docker control p99 ${p99Ms}ms`]);
}
export function recommendSandboxStartSlotTimeout(
p99Ms: number | null,
maxObservedMs: number | null,
productionDefault: number,
range: { min: number; max: number },
): Recommendation<number> {
if ((p99Ms === null || !finiteNumber(p99Ms)) && (maxObservedMs === null || !finiteNumber(maxObservedMs))) {
return { value: null, status: "not-calibrated", confidence: "LOW", measuredBasis: [], warnings: ["Sandbox-start-slot waits were not measured."] };
}
const technical = roundUp(Math.max(p99Ms ?? 0, 0) * 2 || 0, 1_000);
const maxMargin = roundUp(Math.max(maxObservedMs ?? 0, 0) * 1.5, 1_000);
return rangeRecommendation(
Math.max(technical, maxMargin),
productionDefault,
range,
[`sandbox-start-slot p99 ${p99Ms ?? "n/a"}ms`, `max observed ${maxObservedMs ?? "n/a"}ms`],
);
}
export function recommendQueueTimeout(
queueP95Ms: number | null,
queueP99Ms: number | null,
queueMaxMs: number | null,
maxUserWaitSec: number,
): Recommendation<number> {
const values = [queueP95Ms === null ? null : queueP95Ms * 1.5, queueP99Ms === null ? null : queueP99Ms * 1.25, queueMaxMs === null ? null : queueMaxMs * 1.1]
.filter((value): value is number => value !== null && Number.isFinite(value));
Iif (values.length === 0) {
return { value: null, status: "not-calibrated", confidence: "LOW", measuredBasis: [], warnings: ["Simulation queue waits were not measured."] };
}
const technical = roundUp(Math.max(...values), 1_000);
const ceiling = maxUserWaitSec * 1_000;
if (technical > ceiling) {
return {
value: null,
status: "infeasible",
confidence: "MEDIUM",
measuredBasis: [`technical queue minimum ${technical}ms`, `UX ceiling ${ceiling}ms`],
warnings: [`Technical queue timeout ${technical}ms exceeds the maximum user wait policy ${ceiling}ms.`],
};
}
return {
value: technical,
status: "recommended",
confidence: "MEDIUM",
measuredBasis: [`technical queue minimum ${technical}ms`, `UX ceiling ${ceiling}ms`],
warnings: [],
};
}
export function scoreCalibrationConfidence(
measuredPhases: number,
complete: boolean,
safetyEvents: number,
): "HIGH" | "MEDIUM" | "LOW" {
if (measuredPhases >= 3 && complete && safetyEvents === 0) return "HIGH";
if (measuredPhases > 0) return "MEDIUM";
return "LOW";
}
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